Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
The Thunder have done a great job on Tyrese Haliburton this season dating to the regular season, but I expect TH to attempt more than the 13 shots he has in each of the first two games of the Finals -- and he did top this number (barely) in Game 2. He easily topped 16.5 points in each home game in the East Finals, although obviously OKC is a much better defensive team than New York is. Our model has Haliburton at 20.5 points Wednesday.
Didn't expect a Jarace Walker injury to prod me to play an NBA Finals prop, but here we are. Walker is a reserve Pacers forward who has averaged about 16 minutes per game in these playoffs. He will miss at least the first two of the Finals due to injury. Most of those minutes in theory should go to fellow reserve Obi "Wan" Toppin. He's averaging 3.3 boards in the playoffs and was at 4.7 in the conference finals. If this is a blowout, Toppin also probably sees an uptick in minutes. As it is, the Pacers will need more size against the OKC twin 7-footers. If Toppin sees at least 20 minutes, I think this easily cashes.
Again, I have no personal dog in this fight. But I am the biggest-ever Pacers fan in Game 6 simply to stop hearing about the Chalamets, the Jenners, the Stillers (do like Ben and not just because of Severance -- that certainly doesn't hurt, though), the Hargitays and, I mean, Spike Lee is the cherry atop the hate sundae, and such at Knicks home games. WHO. CARES. Guess I could stop watching. Indiana won't want to go back to that nonsense again in Game 7, so I expect basically an elimination game effort from Indy on Saturday, where the most well-known fan's last name probably rhymes with Gellencamp.
Did the Mitchell Robinson starting lineup change make that much of a difference for the Knicks? For three quarters, it didn't as Indiana was the vastly superior team until going completely cold and getting dominated in the fourth. Indiana also lost Game 3 of the last two rounds only to crush the opponent in Game 4. The Pacers haven't lost back-to-back games overall since March 8 & 10. They won't be limited to five made 3-pointers again.
(Derrick Rose and Luol Deng wrecker) Tom Thibodeau might start Mitchell Robinson tonight for the first time because he has been easily the best defender/rebounder in the series and Indiana is basically terrorizing Karl-Anthony Towns when he's on defense. Robinson played 29 minutes in Game 2, by far his most in these playoffs and second-most all season. He pulled down nine boards. Rebounding is the Pacers' biggest weakness. Should be a fun day in Indy with the 500 (I used to care about that race and know most of the drivers, but now I probably couldn't name more than five) and this.
I really don't see the point of playing +2.5 ... +3.5 maybe. Either the Wolves are winning this game or they probably get stomped again in my opinion. OKC is 0-5 ATS on the road in these playoffs. Indiana-Oklahoma City NBA Finals perhaps. Indianapolis and OKC are two places you pray where your flights aren't delayed and stuck there overnight (yep, that's happened to me in both cities, and they are nice towns but super boring). I'm sure the NBA's TV partners are thrilled (not) about that possible Finals matchup. I personally think that would be the best one in a contrast of styles. And I just can't take any more of Timothée Chalamet. Please go away.
Julius Randle has completely blown past this number in five straight games and nine of the past 10. And we are getting 18.5 (BetRivers-affiliated books tend to be a bit contrarian) when I see red-hot expert Mike Barner played this at 19.5. Our model has JR at 18.8 points.
Good for the Celtics in winning Game 5 without Jayson Tatum to save their season temporarily. But that was probably all adrenaline from the home crowd ... and clearly the New York players somewhat took things for granted. I believe reality without Tatum kicks in big time back at Madison Square Garden for Boston on Friday. It's the Knicks' biggest home game in 25 years. So maybe give the good seats to a true regular fan and not a Kardashian/Jenner ...
I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express tonight but I did just finish the excellent medical show "the Pitt" on Max, which is basically ER 2.0. I mention because if Celtics star Jayson Tatum didn't tear his Achilles' tendon in tonight's loss in NY, it's an upset. Every internet doctor is sure projecting that. I mean, we saw Paul Pierce also leave in a wheelchair years ago for Boston and return, but all he had to reportedly do was "sit on the throne" for a bit in Game 1 of the 2008 NBA Finals. Such a bummer for Tatum. Maybe the C's scrape out a home win to save their season, but the team has to be gutted. The Knicks are now East favorites.
Buddy Hield's point total has now dropped four straight games as he starts to cool off a bit -- but he still has topped this number in each. And it was very encouraging to see him play 32 minutes in Game 3 sans Steph Curry. Fellow guard Moses Moody appears to have fallen out of the rotation, so that helps Hield because the Dubs are very short on guards with Curry still out. Our model has Hield at 15.8 points, but I don't know that I'd rec any higher than this.
Do I think the Thunder win? Probably. But 6.5 on the road against the best player in the world, whose team leads the dang series seems awfully steep. And it's not like anyone is out injured. It would mark only the 10th time this decade that Denver is getting at least 6 at home in a regular season or playoff game (6-3 ATS in those nine) -- some books had 6 for Game 3, which the Nuggets won outright, but some closed at 5.5.
We barely cashed Golden State's Buddy Hield Over 14.5 points in Game 2 and he is slowing down a bit as expected. But Hield got 14 shot attempts in just 29 minutes without Steph Curry in there and that should continue tonight as Steph is out again. Our model has him at 15.1 points.
It sounds as if Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter will all return for the Cavs. So that should mean Donovan Mitchell doesn't approach 30 shot attempts or 21 free-throw attempts again. This has dropped to 28.5 at a few books with that trio all participating in shootaround. If they happen to all still sit again, yeah, this probably loses. But that does not sound like the case with the spread rising a fair amount.
Buddy Hield scored four total points in Games 5-6 vs. Houston but has since scored 33 and 24, respectively, and certainly should get plenty of shot attempts with Steph Curry out as now Hield is the team's top 3-point threat. I'd imagine the Wolves focus their defense on Jimmy Butler sans Curry.