Tarik Skubal hasn't hit this number in two starts. ...

Fading Kyle Freeland here and backing Robbie Ray, more than anything. Matt Chapman is out but I still side with the Giants here, and at this price for the -1.5 it doesn't show much value but I'm going to ride with it anyways. This offense came back from the dead in the 9th inning last night and scored four runs against a Rockies bullpen that's now been used a good bit over the last few days. San Fran's bullpen on the other hand has been one of MLB's best and they should have everyone readily available to help nail down this one.

Taking a shot on Brandon Pfaadt to bounce back tonight! Up until that abysmal last start at home where he failed to record an out, Pfaadt had racked up five straight quality starts when pitching in Arizona. This will be his first start back on the home mound since that blow up, and with Seattle and their worsening strikeout rate as his opponent, I'll take a shot on a 5th strikeout. Also, with how high the variance he has been for his strikeouts (more so last year than this year), I took a shot and went up the ladder here (6,7,8).

Mitch Spence gets one of the better matchups in MLB for strikeouts and after throwing nearly 60 pitches over five innings last time out against the Twins, he should be given enough leash to get through five innings again, projecting near 75 pitches. He just had four strikeouts against Minnesota and used the curveball and slider for three of those punch outs. He'll need to do the same tonight against a righty heavy Angels lineup that's struggled against breaking pitches. Spence recorded eight swings and misses from 17 swings on those two pitches against the Twins and he's bumped his swinging strike rate to 14%, in part thanks to being a reliever. Value on this price at BetRivers and started a ladder here (4,5,6).

Spencer Strider has missed the over on this line since coming back from the IL. Atlanta's bullpen was spared yesterday thanks to Bryce Elder eating eight innings and if we're still getting a 17.5 outs line on Strider, I've got to bet the under. Snitker and the Braves want to stretch him out I'm sure but with the start they got yesterday, and Chris Sale tomorrow, is this really the spot to do that? Atlanta is 3-13 since May 20th and on a six game skid. This is the final game in San Fran and they have to win at least one before heading to Milwaukee. I don't see why they would pick this spot to push him unless his pitch count was super low.

For this price, I'm finding value in backing Luis Castillo. You may be able to find plus odds as we get closer to game time but regardless, the price has jumped back a ton and I'm willing to dive in for a half unit. Castillo gets a righty heavy lineup and the lefties have been his issue with run prevention and strikeouts, while the underlying metrics and strikeout rate look solid still against right handers. He'll use the fastball, sinker and slider mix against those righties but the slider is where he will need to focus and be sharp, as this lineup has struggled with the pitch. If he can throw sharp sliders tonight in two-strike counts, he should be well positioned for some strikeouts.

As the price has come back slightly here on Ryan Yarbrough's strikeout total, I'm in for the price being better than -140. We have to go all the way back to Logan Allen (who is not known for his strikeouts) on April 27th to find a starting pitcher that has stayed under this total. The Red Sox have not faced a ton of lefties and Yarbrough is stretched out to pitch deeper into the game. I'm going to double dip on the over 15.5 outs for a half unit as well.

Ranger Suarez faces off with the Pirates who take the leagues most strikeouts looking. If he uses the sinker for called strikes again here and stays away from relying on the changeup as much, I think we can find some success for a 6th strikeout.

Spencer Schwellenbach has had his fair share of home run struggles against left handed batters but these lefties in the Giants order don't scare me very much. They've DFA'd Lamonte Wade Jr and shuffled the order to now have five right handed batters and four lefties. Righties is where Schwellenbach makes his money, with a 30% strikeout rate and sparkling underlying metrics. After the bullpen debacle yesterday for the Braves, and with the Braves righty working deep into games regularly, I think he will be given every opportunity to do that again and extra opportunities against these righties could prove huge.

Back-to-back nights in Seattle, Adley Rutschman went deep. Of course the kid from Portland was going to hit some bombs playing so close to home. But you know where else is close to Portland? Sacramento. JP Sears allowed six runs thanks to eight hits and four home runs last start in Sacramento and he's had home run issues in this minor league park. Seven home runs in 19 innings at home vs six in 40+ innings on the road. Rutschman puts the ball in the air, should hit near the top of the order and is on the away team. Plus he's got four hits in 10 at bats against Sears, with two home runs in there.

Kansas City has scored 22 runs over the last three games since Jac Caglianone has been called up. After being one of the lowest scoring offenses to start the year, it may not be his physical production just yet but his presence that seems to have rejuvenated the Royals lineup a bit. Davis Martin didn’t had a scoreless start in May although he didn't produce poor results. His 5.76 xERA differs vastly from the actual 3.67 ERA, and he's allowed a .300 average to righties. Martin has been hit hard and allowed home runs, while I think Seth Lugo is likely better than his last performance when coming off the IL. Add in the KC bullpen with their 3.27 ERA, and I'll back KC.

Will Warren should be eager to put that last start behind him, after blowing up for the second time this season when he faced the Dodgers in LA. Now back home where he sports a 3.10 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 20 innings, I'm backing a 6th strikeout. The Red Sox have struck out at a surprisingly high rate on the road (26.8%) vs. at home (20.4%) when facing right handed pitchers, and none of these hitters have ever seen the Yankees righty before. Warren has finished with at least five strikeouts in 9/12 starts and the misses consist of the first start of the year, and two blowups of 1.2 and 1.1 inning.

The total here is 7.5 for the full game but we need a 5th run to score in the F5 to beat us here. After the last two nights of 3-0 scores, we now get Framber Valdez against Mitch Keller. Pittsburgh has the 4th-lowest OPS against left handed pitchers and the Astros are bottom-seven in MLB for OPS against right handers so far. This Houston lineup has looked like a shell of itself without Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, plus the Pirates have been one of MLB's lowest scoring teams thus far. There is also little success or a lack of experience on both sides for the hitters against these pitchers in this interleague matchup.

Andrew Abbott is over this line in six of nine starts and while the price is 20-40 cents cheap, I have a few reservations. The expected wOBA on his pitches all skew higher than the actual numbers, albeit some are negligible, and the whiff rate has bumped up on his fastball but decreased/stayed the same on the others. His changeup whiff rate is nearly identical to 2024 but he's using it as a putaway pitch more, so the strikeout rate has risen. The main change though is a massive increase in the curveball putaway usage, and that's what I believe he needs to lean into here to grab some strikeouts against this lineup. Not a great matchup but at this price I'll play the over.

With the loss of Mark Vientos and Edwin Diaz working back to back days, I don't love this setup for the Mets. They came in last night and stole that win after blowing the lead late as the Dodgers continued to chip away, and I don't trust that bullpen if Diaz is (likely) unavailable after working back to back days. Mookie Betts should be back for this one so we get the Dodgers at pretty much full strength and against a pitcher in Tylor Megill who pitched into the 6th inning just once in May, with a 5.96 ERA.