Are the oddsmakers paying a bit too much respect to the venerable NBA playoff zig-zag? OKC has won all five after its postseason losses, but it has covered only three of those. Maybe more importantly, the Thunder hasn't covered at all in eight playoff games on the road this spring. Meanwhile, wagering markets have also been underrating the Pacers too much all postseason, neglecting to note Indiana's second-best NBA record since New Year's. (Those losses in October, November, and December aren't too meaningful in June.) Various scorers have stepped forward for Rick Carlisle's Indy all throughout the playoffs, and note how the Pacers slowed SGA ("only" 24 points) in Game 3. All are worrying developments for the Thunder. Play Pacers.

Trends-trends-trends...what to do? There's the Game 3 hex for the Pacers, who have lost and failed to cover all 3s in these playoffs. Then there's the Thunder's 0-7 spread mark as a visitor this postseason. For good measure, OKC is also 0-3 vs. the line in its Game 3s. The Pacers were understandably flat in Game 2, having already guaranteed a road split, and would expect the big guns (Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner) to step it up at home. Indy can make the Thunder play defense sideline-to-sideline, but can't abandon interior scoring as in Game 2. As OKC hasn't been the same team on the road in these playoffs, there's a case for the Pacers. Play Pacers.

We waited almost the entire 48 minutes for Game 2 to clear 228.5, but the scoreline did nudge over on Sunday. There's another gear we can see from Indiana, especially at home in the Fieldhouse, where the Pacers scored 127.5 in their last two as host against the Knicks in the East finals. The big guns for Indiana, especially Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, are capable of inflicting much more scoring damage than they did in Game 2. Note Indy scored 66 points after intermission in its Game 1 win and 56 in the 2nd half of a flat effort on Sunday, and the Pacers have scored 125 or more in three of their last four at home in the playoffs. Play Thunder-Pacers Over.

Still advantage OKC, eh? Not sure, pundits, as if there's one thing the Thunder don't want is for Indiana to be within touching distance in the 4th Q, considering the many breathless Pacers rallies this postseason, none greater than their fightback in Game One. For proponents of the zig-zag, which has worked pretty well this postseason, and indeed worked for OKC in Game 2 of the Denver series after losing the opener, we offer that Indiana is 3-0 in Game 2s thus far in these playoffs, including unexpected wins at Cleveland and New York the last two rounds after winning Game One. A related play on Indy to win this series, prices around +240 at various outlets, might be worth a look, too. Play Pacers

A sloppy first half by the Pacers, who were guilty of a ghastly 19 TOs in the first 24 minutes, helped keep the score down in Game 1. Indy, however, finally found a groove in the second half when cutting down its TOs (just five) and scoring 66 points. As usual, it was a collective Indiana effort, capped by another Tyrese Haliburton game winner. though note how the Pacers were able to make OKC play defense sideline-to-sideline in the second half, and not just trying to ram the ball down the middle as the T-wolves did in the last round. Trendlines have still mostly been over for these teams in the playoffs and expect that to resurface again in Sunday's Game 2. Play Pacers-Thunder Over

Is this "Mission Impossible" for the Pacers? Maybe not as much as some think, even though Indy lost both to OKC in the regular season, and the Thunder lost just once to East teams all season. OKC also has yet to cover a playoff spread on the road (but we'll get to that in Game 3). Game One keys? Andrew Nembhard will need to make plays when the ball is out of Tyrese Halburton's hands. Indy needs to keep turnovers low, and make the Thunder play defense sideline-to-sideline defense after OKC was able to load up in the paint vs. Minnesota, which had no ball reversal. Enough to stay within 10? Remember, the Pacers are also 6-2 SU on the road this postseason! Play Pacers

As regular-season meetings hit 234 and 243, respectively, we can see why we're seeing a 230+ total for Game One. Both, especially OKC, can play disruptive defense, but the sort that also leads to scores with points off turnovers often highlighting each side. Indiana also needs to find a way to slow SGA, who scored 33 and 45, respectively, in the reg season. matchups. Though the Pacers' passing game should do a much better job with ball movement than did Minnesota, after the Thunder defense more easily slowed the T-wolves in the last round when Minnesota was slow, if not deficient, at the sort of ball reversal that would make OKC play defense sideline-to-sideline. Plenty of ammo to push this past 230! Play Pacers-Thunder Over

It's back! We're talking about the old “NBA Playoff Zig-Zag” which has resurfaced in a meaningful way this postseason; teams that have lost outright the previous game are +19 against the spread in the subsequent outing. In Games 3, 4, and 5 in this series, it’s worked, and most insiders seem willing to give Indiana at least a semi-mulligan for its poor showing on Thursday night. Game 5 looks to have been a substantial outlier for the Pacers, as Tyrese Haliburton (only 7 points on 2-for-7 FG shooting), Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and Myles Turner could only combine for 14 points, with eight turnovers...it’s a surprise Indy only lost by 17! The real Pacers should show up tonight and close out this series. Play Pacers

Rest assured the combative Knicks, with Jalen Brunson and KAT, are going to die hard, but if playoff trendlines continue, the good version of Indy shows up and closes out this series, as it also did last May vs. New York. Totals-wise, the “good Pacers” play fast (which they didn’t on Thursday and should also make it tougher for Tom Thibodeau to slow the pace and keep this scoreline under as in three of the last four games. Note the last time a total was posted beneath 220 in this series, Game 4 exploded, and most of the recent history between these sides has featured scorelines into the 220s. No surprise if this game more resembles that Game 4 from Tuesday night. Play Knicks-Pacers Over

The Knicks are in trouble, but they only need to win one game--not three--on Thursday to stay alive. Still some real concerns for NY, including the supposed edge of playing at Madison Square Garden. Even Spike Lee can't explain the Knicks' 3-5 straight-up mark at home in these playoffs, which includes NY losses in Games 1 & 2 of this series. Now there is worry about the condition of Karl-Anthony Towns, dealing with a knee contusion. We suspected from the outset that Indiana's depth would provide the ultimate advantage vs. the Knicks, and we've seen nothing in the first four games to change our opinion. The Pacers are well capable of closing out another series in a Game 5 on the road. Play Pacers.

Though Jalen Brunson, who scored another 31 in Game 4, is doing his best, the Knicks are beginning to tire. We saw this in the 4th Q on Tuesday when struggling to get stops vs. the Pacers' onslaught led by Tyrese Haliburton, who posted 32 points, 15 assists, 12 rebounds in Game 4. Still, Rick Carlisle has been getting big buckets throughout the playoffs from others such as Pascal Siakam (his second 30-point game of the series in Game 4), Game 1 hero Aaron Nesmith, Myles Turner, and an assortment of contributors from his bench (on Tuesday it was Bennedict Mathurin with 20 points; Obi Toppin and CJ McConnell have also posted big buckets in this series). Play Pacers-Knicks Over.

Check out this...461-460. That's the total scoreline of this series thru four games, a one-point edge for the Thunder, and suggesting that despite the fact OKC can sew up matters tonight, this series isn't as one-sided as some believe. True, three of the games were one-sided, including OKC's home wins in Games 1 & 2, but even those games weren't one-way traffic all the way, OKC using second-half spurts to pull clear. Minnesota, however, did seem to gain confidence in the games at Target Center, and though losing on Monday, came within 2 points, despite Julius Randle scoring only 5, while the bench contributed 64 points. Meanwhile, can SGA (40 points Game 4) & Jalen Williams (34 points) play any better? Play T-wolves.

The only game of a previous seven landing beneath 218 between these sides this season came in Game One of this series when the T-wolves went ice-cold in the second half. In games 3 and 4, scorelines reached 244 and 254, respectively. The Wolves are having obvious problems slowing down SGA (40 points in game 4) and Jalen Williams (34 points on Monday), hardly keeping scorelines down. Meanwhile, Minnesota scored 126 on Monday even with Julius Randle contributing only 5, suggesting Chris Finch has some other options, including Illinois rookie Terrence Shannon, Jr along with Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Naz Reid, able to contribute 64 points off the bench in Game 4 and give the Wolves enough options to keep pace. Play Wolves-Thunder Over

The Knicks needed to play a near-perfect 4th Q on Sunday to climb back into this series...can they do it again? NY still mostly rides with Jalen Brunson, though Karl-Anthony Towns scored 20 in a heroic 4th Q on Sunday. The bench depth edge for Indiana, with Rick Carlisle able to go 11-deep, was always likely to begin manifesting more as the series progresses and the Knicks' starters continue to pile up big minutes. Our only hesitation on the Indy side is the condition of Aaron Nesmith, but as long as he's available, expect the Pacers to storm back in Game 4 just as they did off of losses vs. the Bucks and Cavs when playing arguably their best games of those series. Play Pacers.

The Pacers suddenly lost their shooting eyes on Sunday, hitting just 5 of 25 triples, after prior connecting 40% from downtown in the playoffs. Pascal Siakam, the hero of Game 2 with 39 points, was on the wrong end of a -21 +/- rating in Game 3. Those might be just blips on the radar, as Indiana's offense has been mostly potent this postseason. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns did have his best game of the series for the Knicks on Sunday, scoring 20 in the 4th Q (!). Tom Thibodeau has been able to slow the pace enough for a couple of under results in a row, though most of these meetings this season have been played in the 220s or higher. Play Knicks-Pacers Over