Caesar’s. Michael Soroka has allowed at least five hits in five of his seven starts this season. He pounds the zone, leading all qualified starting pitchers in zone percentage this season. The Mets don’t swing and miss much, with the fourth lowest whiff rate. Thus, I expect a lot of contact today - the Mets as is have a .277 batting average against righties over the last two weeks. Soroka has struggled more against lefties (.259 average), and the Mets likely start six southpaws.

DraftKings. Bailey Ober has failed to clear this line in ten of his 13 starts this season. The Rangers had struggled with strikeouts, but now are trotting out their regular, less K-prone lineup. Over the last week against righties, Texas’s punchout rate has declined to 20%. Ober has below average whiff rates this season, and the Rangers maintain the highest zone swing percentage in baseball. I’m expecting more contact than not today - take the under.

Caesar’s. Pascal Siakam has yet to clear this combined points and assists line this series, and is under in nine of his last fifteen playoff games. While much of the focus is on Tyrese Halliburton’s tough matchup, Siakam has drawn Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso as his individual defenders. Siakam is shooting a combined 3/13 in their coverage. The Thunder defense in general is predicated on keeping opponents scoring outside the paint, ranking number one in that metric in the regular season. Siakam just isn’t a volume jump shooter, and we’ve seen his field goal attempts crater in this series.

DraftKings. Even with the series shifting to Indiana, I’m a little surprised we’re getting the same Alex Caruso points line after his 20-point outburst. He’s now cleared this line in 12 of 15 playoff games when he’s played at least 20 minutes, and he’s coming off consecutive games of 27 minutes. Having averaged 9 points per 25 minutes in the regular season, and this being a fast paced matchup, I’ll gladly bet this line once again.

FanDuel at -120. Reds have won five in a row, and the Guardians have lost six of eight. But what stands out here is the pitching matchup. Nick Lodolo has been solid with a 3.21 ERA (1.25 across his seven road starts). He’s been relying on his changeup more as the season has worn on, and the Guardians are a bottom eight team in weighted runs above average against the pitch. Overall, Cleveland has been brutal against left handed pitching, with a .570 OPS over the last thirty days. Logan Allen is on the bump for the Guardians, and he’s registered a 5.88 ERA over his last eight outings. I’ll buy the Reds momentum here, and take them on the first five innings money-line.

Caesar’s. Dylan Cease has remained under this line in eight of thirteen starts this season. He’ll face off against a patient Dodgers lineup whom Cease has not much success against historically.

DraftKings. Merrill Kelly has cleared this line in each of his last six starts. He’s registered a 30% called plus swinging strike rate over those starts, and seems to have his changeup working in addition to his cutter and four-seam fastball. After a strikeout averse start, the Mariners have come back down to earth, and have the league’s fourth highest called plus swinging strike rate over the last month.

Caesar’s. Brayan Bello has failed to clear this line in six of his nine starts this season. He’s specifically struggled against lefties, allowing a .846 OPS, and a 14.8% walk rate. He’ll face between five and seven left handed hitters in today’s Rays lineup - and Tampa has been mashing right handed pitching of late, with a .797 OPS and 129 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Caesar’s. Alex Caruso is coming off an 11-point outing in Game 1, playing 28 minutes off the bench. Caruso’s minutes floor seems to be secure, as he’s played at least 22 minutes in eleven of the last twelve playoff games (with the outlier coming in a 42-point loss to the Timberwolves). And there’s even more upside for Caruso’s playing time in this series, as the Thunder seem inclined to run more small lineups. When he sees just 18 minutes of playing time, Caruso has cleared this line in 21 of his last 30 games, including 11 of 14 in the playoffs. The up and down nature of this series suits him too - as he thrives in transition and on spot up shooting.

DraftKings / B365. George Kirby has yet to register more than four strikeouts in any of his three starts. Typically more dominant at home and against left-handed hitters, Kirby won’t have either of those splits in Los Angeles, against a right-handed heavy lineup. Plus, the Angels have been better of late in terms of strikeouts, with only a 22% K% vs right handed pitching over the last two weeks.

DraftKings. Coming off an elbow injury, Spencer Strider has yet to reclaim his dominant form. He’s pitched to a 5.68 ERA (6.41 xERA) and his hard hit and whiff rates have moved in the opposite direction. His velocity is down a tick, and the Braves have remained cautious: Strider has yet to pitch into the sixth inning in each of his four starts. Now pitching on four days rest for the first time this season with a fresh bullpen, I don’t expect today to be the day where the Braves push their young ace. Plus, the Giants see the fourth most pitches per plate appearance.

FanDuel at -124. Had to wait this one out due to weather concerns, but there is enough of a window to fire on this strikeout prop. Paul Skenes has revved it up, clearing this line in four straight starts. He’ll face a weaker Phillies lineup today, with no Bryce Harper and the backup catcher slotted in.

DraftKings. Luis Severino has really struggled at home this season, pitching to a 6.99 ERA, with a .284 OBA. Tonight, he’ll face an Orioles lineup he’s struggled with in the past, and one that is starting to turn the corner offensively. Severino has allowed at least three earned runs in six of eight home games, but is also almost guaranteed to throw his customary 90+ pitches. Fantastic hitting conditions tonight in Sacramento as well.

DraftKings. We squeaked by yesterday with our Kodai Senga under strikeouts bet, and I’m going back to the well and trusting the Rockies again tonight. Clay Holmes is under this line in eight of twelve starts, including each of his last seven.

Caesar’s. Ryan Yarbrough is amidst a career resurgence with the Yankees. Pitching to a 2.83 ERA (2.91 xERA), Yarbrough is posting career high strikeout and whiff numbers (24.7% strikeout rate and 79th percentile in whiff rate). Traditionally a finesse pitcher, Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake has revamped the lefty’s changeup, and unlocked a tick more velocity on his fast balls. The result has yielded 40 strikeouts in 41.1 innings pitched, and five plus in each of his last three starts. He’s now fully built up, and facing a Red Sox roster that features seven hitters with at least a 20% strikeout rate against lefties. Would bet this line up to -155.