The Pacers haven't had much success slowing down Brunson as it is, and now his primary defender, Aaron Nesmith, is playing on a hobbled ankle. The Knicks were way more desperate than Indiana in Game 3. Indiana isn't going to let off the gas in Game 4, and it will be largely up to Brunson to keep the Knicks attached.

The Pacers suddenly lost their shooting eyes on Sunday, hitting just 5 of 25 triples, after prior connecting 40% from downtown in the playoffs. Pascal Siakam, the hero of Game 2 with 39 points, was on the wrong end of a -21 +/- rating in Game 3. Those might be just blips on the radar, as Indiana's offense has been mostly potent this postseason. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns did have his best game of the series for the Knicks on Sunday, scoring 20 in the 4th Q (!). Tom Thibodeau has been able to slow the pace enough for a couple of under results in a row, though most of these meetings this season have been played in the 220s or higher. Play Knicks-Pacers Over

The prop market backers of OG Anunoby in the Eastern Conference Finals have seen him come right under his points prop in all three games. He’s scored exactly 16 points in each of the first three games. Game three was his most efficient as he shot six of nine from the floor, but did not score in the fourth quarter. That was because of the hot shooting Karl Anthony Towns who put in twenty in the fourth quarter alone. Look for Anunoby to continue his effectiveness but have more attempts tonight.

The Indiana Pacers are a team full of talent and depth, but Pascal Siakam needs to be the center piece to their offense. We saw his explosive game two, but in game three he took just fourteen shots the entire night. Look for Tyrese Haliburton and his Pacers teammates to feed Siakam early and force his hand on being aggressive. Play his over in game four.

Reserve guard T.J. McConnell shot 55.3 percent at home in the regular season, compared to 49.4 percent on the road. In the playoffs, he's averaging 12 points and five assists through six home games. Back McConnell to clear this prop total for the fourth straight time in this series.

T.J. McConnell hasn’t played more than 15 minutes in any of the three games of the Eastern Conference Finals. However, he combined for at least 12 points and rebounds in each game. In Game 3, he recorded 12 points and three rebounds. He is instant energy off the bench and feeds off the home crowd. He shot 54.3% from the field at home during the regular season, compared to 49.8% on the road. In the playoffs, he has combined for at least 11 points and rebounds in all six games at home. I like his chances to hit that threshold again as the Pacers try to bounce back from a disappointing loss in Game 3.

Karl-Anthony Towns battled foul trouble in Game 3 and struggled to score in the first half. However, he came alive in the fourth quarter and finished with 24 points as the Knicks pulled off a comeback victory. He scored 35 points in Game 1. Although he only played 28 minutes in Game 2, he still scored 20 points. Across his last eight games, Towns has scored at least 21 points six times. In the two games that he didn’t, he had 19 and 20 points. Avoiding foul trouble will be key, but as long as Towns plays around 30 minutes, he has a favorable opportunity to hit this over.

Did the Mitchell Robinson starting lineup change make that much of a difference for the Knicks? For three quarters, it didn't as Indiana was the vastly superior team until going completely cold and getting dominated in the fourth. Indiana also lost Game 3 of the last two rounds only to crush the opponent in Game 4. The Pacers haven't lost back-to-back games overall since March 8 & 10. They won't be limited to five made 3-pointers again.

The Knicks needed to play a near-perfect 4th Q on Sunday to climb back into this series...can they do it again? NY still mostly rides with Jalen Brunson, though Karl-Anthony Towns scored 20 in a heroic 4th Q on Sunday. The bench depth edge for Indiana, with Rick Carlisle able to go 11-deep, was always likely to begin manifesting more as the series progresses and the Knicks' starters continue to pile up big minutes. Our only hesitation on the Indy side is the condition of Aaron Nesmith, but as long as he's available, expect the Pacers to storm back in Game 4 just as they did off of losses vs. the Bucks and Cavs when playing arguably their best games of those series. Play Pacers.

A key to every relationship is getting to know what makes the other person tick and when they are going to be up or down. In this betting relationship we have with Siakam we want to time his downs with unders and his ups with overs. He followed his Game 1 down (17 points) with a dominating Game 2 up (39 points). He came back down in Game 3 with just 17 points on just 14 FGAs. He has gone over this line in 56% of his games this season but is on just a 7-3 Under stretch which is providing us a buy low spot. Last season this was a lock at 65% over 25.5 PTS+REB.

Like the OKC-MIN series, the winner of Game 3 (who lost games 1,2) did not gain confidence in betting markets and are a bigger underdog after their win than before it. The Knicks close +1.5 in Game 3 and now are +2/+2.5 on Tuesday. The Pacers controlled 3/4ths of the game and even with KAT getting hot from three the Pacers still held NY to just 34% 3pt shooting. The Pacers lost because they shot 20% from three point range. Regression to the mean in this case should be a much better shooting night from three point range (36.5% projected) and a Pacers slight cover.

Pacers regressed in Game 3 in all 3 series and I expect trend to follow with a bounceback here. They lost Sun because they stop running and stopping penetrating for easy shots and getting to the line. To me had more to do with them thinking they won the game in the first 20 minutes than NYK adjustments. Pacers still better and deeper. They have been elite offensive team all playoffs and won't have another 42-point half. They need to attack and make this an over game and I suspect the coaching staff will emphasize that here. At some point Halliburton will have a monster game at home. I suspect it's Mon night. Pacers holding their own on boards more than they did vs Cavs.