More shots and more possessions?

Edmonton and Florida meet in this pivotal game four...

Fading Kyle Freeland here and backing Robbie Ray, more than anything. Matt Chapman is out but I still side with the Giants here, and at this price for the -1.5 it doesn't show much value but I'm going to ride with it anyways. This offense came back from the dead in the 9th inning last night and scored four runs against a Rockies bullpen that's now been used a good bit over the last few days. San Fran's bullpen on the other hand has been one of MLB's best and they should have everyone readily available to help nail down this one.

Robbie Ray on the mound? Works for us. Rockies getting destroyed on the RL at home and losing by almost 4 runs per game. Gigantes are 11-2 in Ray's starts with 8 wins on the RL.

The Thunder have been by far the better team in this series. A Game 1 Indiana miracle has it tied 1-1, but OKC is too dominant defensively and the shooting hasn't even come around yet. The Thunder have won two games in every series by at least 20 points. There is another blowout coming.

Caesar’s. Pascal Siakam has yet to clear this combined points and assists line this series, and is under in nine of his last fifteen playoff games. While much of the focus is on Tyrese Halliburton’s tough matchup, Siakam has drawn Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso as his individual defenders. Siakam is shooting a combined 3/13 in their coverage. The Thunder defense in general is predicated on keeping opponents scoring outside the paint, ranking number one in that metric in the regular season. Siakam just isn’t a volume jump shooter, and we’ve seen his field goal attempts crater in this series.

The Thunder are one of the best cover teams of all time, winning 81 games and covering 63 times, and doing so at home and on the road equally. They've already shown the Pacers are overmatched by winning and covering three of the four meetings this season. The Pacers Game 1 win was a one-time thing. In Game 2, the Thunder shot 49% from the field, 39% from three-point range, and scored 123 points. That was just an average Thunder game where they had all their parts working. They've been doing it all season. Thunder to cover.

Indiana stole Game 1 in OKC and now we have a series. OKC has been average on the road in the postseason (4-3 record) and Indiana has been an offensive juggernaut all postseason at home The “magic number” is 110 points. If the Pacers can get there, they are 13-0 in this postseason. They get there tonight and win straight up.

Chet Holmgren scored 15 points over 28 minutes in Game 2. It was encouraging to see him play 28 minutes, even with the Thunder resting their starters late in the fourth quarter. He only played 24 minutes in Game 1, which contributed to him scoring just six points. He has averaged 15.8 points per game during the playoffs and he averaged 17.0 points per game on the road during the regular season. I think the Pacers keep this game close at home, so Holmgren could approach 30 minutes. That would give him a favorable opportunity to reach this over.

We waited almost the entire 48 minutes for Game 2 to clear 228.5, but the scoreline did nudge over on Sunday. There's another gear we can see from Indiana, especially at home in the Fieldhouse, where the Pacers scored 127.5 in their last two as host against the Knicks in the East finals. The big guns for Indiana, especially Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, are capable of inflicting much more scoring damage than they did in Game 2. Note Indy scored 66 points after intermission in its Game 1 win and 56 in the 2nd half of a flat effort on Sunday, and the Pacers have scored 125 or more in three of their last four at home in the playoffs. Play Thunder-Pacers Over.

Trends-trends-trends...what to do? There's the Game 3 hex for the Pacers, who have lost and failed to cover all 3s in these playoffs. Then there's the Thunder's 0-7 spread mark as a visitor this postseason. For good measure, OKC is also 0-3 vs. the line in its Game 3s. The Pacers were understandably flat in Game 2, having already guaranteed a road split, and would expect the big guns (Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner) to step it up at home. Indy can make the Thunder play defense sideline-to-sideline, but can't abandon interior scoring as in Game 2. As OKC hasn't been the same team on the road in these playoffs, there's a case for the Pacers. Play Pacers.

Myles Turner scored 15 points in Game 1 and 16 points in Game 2 of this series. Turner averaged 16.3 points per game at home this season, compared to 14.8 points per game on the road. He has scored at least 15 points in six of eight home playoff games. Given how the Thunder haven’t been as impressive on the road during the playoffs, this has the potential to be a close game. With Turner likely to approach 30 minutes, I like his chances of scoring at least 14 points.

Lu Dort scored just three points in game two, with five fouls. Each postseason game which total four, in which Dort has had five or more fouls he has scored less then five points. Prior Dort had scored in double figures in eight straight games against the Indiana Pacers. This included a twenty two point outburst in the last regular season meeting on March 29th. Play Dort’s over as he keeps his fouls in check.

Lu Dort has gone Under this prop total in six of seven road playoff games. He also had dramatic home-road splits during the regular season, as he made 1.2 fewer 3-pointers per game away from OKC. From deep, Dort shot 9.4 percent worse on the road (35.2 compared to 44.6 at home). Dort's main job is defense. While his minutes are secure, I bet him to score eight or fewer points in Game 3 on Wednesday.

The Thunder have done a great job on Tyrese Haliburton this season dating to the regular season, but I expect TH to attempt more than the 13 shots he has in each of the first two games of the Finals -- and he did top this number (barely) in Game 2. He easily topped 16.5 points in each home game in the East Finals, although obviously OKC is a much better defensive team than New York is. Our model has Haliburton at 20.5 points Wednesday.